AI Divergence, Fed Policy, and Market Structure to Shape H2 Crypto and Equity Markets
After AI enthusiasm drove equities to record highs while bitcoin lagged, analysts expect macro policy and market structure shifts to dominate the second half of 2024. Former Credit Suisse executive Mark Connors warns AI is splitting the market between companies benefiting from the technology and those at risk of disruption, citing recent selloffs in consulting and software firms. He also highlights rising cross-asset correlations as investors focus on policy uncertainty. Chris Sullivan of Hyperion Decimus argues that bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact despite the launch of spot ETFs, which have altered market mechanics. He believes the market is nearing a point where sentiment is so bearish it becomes bullish, and expects bitcoin to bottom in the $54,000-$58,000 range before recovering.
Key facts
- AI enthusiasm propelled tech stocks to record highs while bitcoin fell 46% to $58,300.
- Mark Connors says AI is cleaving the market between beneficiaries and disruptees.
- Rising cross-asset correlations suggest policy uncertainty is the dominant driver.
- Chris Sullivan argues bitcoin's four-year cycle remains intact despite ETF shifts.
- Sullivan expects bitcoin bottom in $54,000-$58,000 range, with bullish risk-reward.